V1.0
Away Homes AS HS Team1% D% Team2% Game Total
Utah Charlotte 105 101 54,20% 2,10% 43,70% 206
Portland Orlando 96 101 43,70% 1,30% 55,00% 197
LA Clippers Philadelphia 101 102 48,20% 2,10% 49,70% 203
Atlanta Chicago 101 97 58,00% 1,20% 40,80% 198
LA Lakers New Jersey 99 95 55,00% 1,90% 43,10% 195
Oklahoma Houston 102 104 46,90% 1,50% 51,60% 206
Sacremento Milwakue 102 104 48,50% 1,40% 50,10% 206
Indiana San Antonio 100 100 48,00% 1,80% 50,20% 201
Washington Phoenix 108 108 49,80% 1,00% 49,20% 217
Picks:
1.Orlando - Portland Orland ML @1.26 92-83
2.Charlotte - Utah Over 190.5 @1.96 102-110
V1.1
Away Homes AS HS Team1% D% Team2% Game Total
Utah Charlotte 100 100 49,00% 2,10% 48,90% 200
Portland Orlando 99 104 40,90% 1,30% 57,80% 203
LA Clippers Philadelphia 102 101 50,70% 2,30% 47,00% 203
Atlanta Chicago 100 101 48,50% 0,80% 50,70% 201
LA Lakers New Jersey 106 95 64,50% 1,50% 34,00% 201
Oklahoma Houston 107 103 54,60% 1,20% 44,20% 210
Sacremento Milwakue 107 102 55,20% 1,10% 43,70% 209
Indiana San Antonio 105 101 55,20% 1,50% 43,30% 206
Washington Phoenix 111 109 53,50% 1,50% 45,00% 219
Picks:
1.Orlando - Portland Orland ML @1.26 92-83
2.Houston - Oklahoma Over 195.5 @1.93 95-90
V2.0
Away Homes AS HS Team1% D% Team2% Game Total
Utah Charlotte 97 98 55,00% 0,00% 45,00% 195
Portland Orlando 95 96 48,00% 2,00% 50,00% 191
LA Clippers Philadelphia 100 99 51,00% 3,00% 46,00% 199
Atlanta Chicago 99 94 63,00% 5,00% 32,00% 192
LA Lakers New Jersey 102 94 72,00% 1,00% 27,00% 196
Oklahoma Houston 101 96 63,00% 2,00% 35,00% 197
Sacramento Milwakue 100 103 40,00% 4,00% 56,00% 204
Indiana San Antonio 96 105 29,00% 5,00% 66,00% 201
Washington Phoenix 102 105 36,00% 3,00% 61,00% 207
Picks:
1.Chicago - Atlanta Atlanta ML @1.53 92-92 (OT 101-98)
2.Houston - Oklahoma Oklahoma +3.5 @1.98 95-90
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Your system seems to like some very high money line favorites if they pass your filter for winning a certain percentage (I thought it was 60%?) However, I humbly suggest you put in another filter of comparing the expected win percentage to the actual money line.
ReplyDeleteFor example, Orlando would have to win at least 80% of the time to justify today's line, but you don't expect them to win by anything close to that number, so there is a negative expected value, and therefore, should not be a bet.
Just my two cents worth...
Yes normally it should be done like that. It is assumed to compare expected probablity with odds and then if there is value bet should be st. However there is a problem for me that my 60% for me is more like an index then percentage of win. My draw percentages always remain lower then actual. So assume my values only a value or score rather then percentage. It is also so much time consuming to record odds then compare them with my calculations and then decide valuable bets.(I am lazy:-)) Rather i have much sipler filter if odds are too low (for decimal below 1.20) i skip it... If you know simple way for comparing odds value i am glad to know it..
ReplyDeleteBy the way thank you very much to share your opnions
I might be able to help if I understood more of what you are doing.
ReplyDeleteCan you explain more about "index" vs. winning percentage?
Also, are your calculations done on regulation time only, or do they include OT/shootouts?
No it doesn't inlude OT.. When inputting data i normalize date something like; for example total ribounds is 40 including over time then i input data like 40*240normal time)/265(duration including OT if i remember right)
ReplyDeleteThe percentage values are the results of virtual matches ran by using random numbers.. It is something like Monte Carlo simulation but simpler one in excel. So the bigger the number of random numbers in calculations the more close the values. That's way i also don't want to try to find the correct lines
Sorry, didn't realize which blog I was on, the OT was referring to hockey.
ReplyDelete